Econometric Semiconductor Forecast

Econometric Semiconductor Forecast

Forecasting Semiconductors: A Demand-Driven Approach

The Econometric Semiconductor Forecast (ESF) is the first semiconductor industry forecasting service to use rigorous state of the art global GDP macroeconomic models to provide quarterly forecasts with monthly updates, allowing forecast recipients to plan for short-term fluctuations in the volatile semiconductor industry. The ESF  uses a proven macroeconomic forecasting tool that incorporates measures of economic uncertainty, global economic shocks, and regional volatility to develop a Silicon area forecast for the global semiconductor industry.

The forecast provides subscribers with monthly updates of quarterly forecasts of total semiconductor production in Million Square Inches(MSI) of silicon processed.

The Econometric Semiconductor Forecast is based on an advanced econometric forecasting model developed by Duncan Meldrum, business economist and founder of Hilltop Economics, in conjunction with Linx Consulting.  The model is based on a demand-driven equation that captures >98% of the long run variation in semiconductors and includes:

  • Global real GDP growth (from consensus forecasts)
  • US consumer and business spending on technology goods
  • Inventory-shipments ratio, computer & electronics
  • Financial crisis shock indicator to capture panic behavior in latest cycle

Forecast Reporting Schedule

The ESF has two key deliverables released on a periodic basis:

  • Quarterly Forecasts — 4 times per year (in February, May, August, November) with corresponding webinars
  • Monthly Updates — 8 times per year in the remaining months

Publishing Schedule

Output Release date
January monthly update 4th week of January
February monthly Update 4th week of February
1Q Quarterly Forecast (webinar included) 1st week of March
March Monthly Update 4th week of march
April Monthly Update 4th week of April
2Q Quarterly Forecast (webinar included) 4th week of May
June Monthly Update 4th week of June
July Monthly Update 4th week of July
3Q Quarterly Forecast (webinar included) 4th week of August
September 4th week of September
October 4th week of October
4Q Quarterly Forecast (webinar included) 4th week of November
December 4th week of December